Helena Cobbin puts together the resignation of Phiip Zelikow as counsellor to Secretary of State Condi Rice and the visits of high administration officials—including Bush himself—to mideast sunni moslem nations: the administration is planning an attack on Iran and the meetings all over the mideast are to prepare those nations for what is to come. Zelikow, who is intelligent and knowledgeable, and, knowing that the results of such an attack would be disastrous to the U.S., quit.

It's speculation, of course, but given that Bush is a lame duck with no more elections in front of him, he could very well feel emboldened to strike out at Iran with little fear of political retribution. Our soldiers in Iraq will feel the retribution, however, as Iran stirs the boiling pot that is now Iraq. Since the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group are due to be released shortly, and rumors have it that it will recommend bringing Syria and Iran into negotiations, it is entirely conceivable that Bush and Cheney believe that they must strike before those recommendations are released:

... So maybe all the haste with which Olmert and the Bushites are acting these days has to do with them trying to pre-empt the recommendations that the ISG [Iraq Study Group]are expected to come out with? After all, once the relatively sage recommendations of the wise adults of both parties are out there publicly on the table, and framing the national debate, it would be a lot harder for Bush and Olmert to launch a military adventure against Iran, unconstrained by political realities.

(Bush and Olmert would have to create some kind of an immediate "pretext" for the attack. But doing that need not be hard to arrange.)

So maybe all the present visits by Bush and his high-level acolytes to Sunni countries are related not so much to planning regarding Iraq, but to some final advance planning for a military strike against Iran that may be fairly imminent?

Let us hope that Bush and Olmert have not gone completely crazy. Read Cobbin and ponder. I personally believe that the trips are more likely to be for the purpose of preparing U.S. allies, particularly Israel, for the shock that will inevitably accompany the U.S.'s bringing Iran and Syria into the negotiations. Still, it's hard to fit Zelikow's resignation into that scenario.

Helena Cobbin: Zelikow: What does he know?