Palley Strikes Again: The China Conundrum
Apr 21, 2006 07:35 Filed in: Economics
Believing that 50 years of Maoism could not possibly erase thousands of years of tradition, it recently occurred to me that for westerners the Chinese nation might profitably be viewed through the lens of the Book of Changes, the Yi-Ching. The book consists of sixty-four hexagrams, each composed of six lines, each of which are either yin or yang. The yin and yang are further divided into old (changing) and new (stable). Each hexagram bears a traditional interpretation and together they are intended to encompass the whole of human experience. The inquirer poses a question to the oracle and then, using one of several traditional randomizing procedures, chooses a hexagram. In the ambiguous language that is the hallmark of oracles, the text of the Yi-Ching explains the significance of the hexagram which the inquirer must apply to the question. While I hold a skeptical view about the divine significance of any oracle, I have personally found that consulting the oracle often provides just the right mental stimulation to get me unstuck when I have bogged down trying to solve a difficult problem.
But to the point: Readers of this blog will be familiar with my admiration for Thomas Palley's blog, Economics for Democratic and Open Societies. Palley has recently posted an excellent article on how the trade imbalance between the U.S. and China is distorting the economies of both nations, as well as the economies of the rest of the world. The article will require considerable effort for the economically unschooled, but the efforts will be well-rewarded.
After reading the article, I decided out of idle curiosity to invoke the Yi-Ching with the question "What should the United States be doing with respect to China?" Using a program I wrote a for the Mac several years ago that duplicates the yarrow stick method of selecting a hexagram, I was presented with Hexagram 63 - "Chi Chi / After Completion." Here is a portion of the Wilhelm translation that explains the hexagram:
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This hexagram is the evolution of T'ai PEACE ( 11 ). The transition from confusion to order is completed, and everything is in its proper place even in particulars. The strong lines are in the strong places, the weak lines in the weak places. This is a very favorable outlook, yet it gives reason for thought. For it is just when perfect equilibrium has been reached that any movement may cause order to revert to disorder. The one strong line that has moved to the top, thus effecting complete order in details, is followed by the other lines. Each moving according to its nature, and thus suddenly there arises again the hexagram P'i, STANDSTILL ( 12 ).
Hence the present hexagram indicates the conditions of a time of climax, which necessitate the utmost caution.
THE JUDGMENT
AFTER COMPLETION. Success in small matters.
Perseverance furthers.
At the beginning good fortune.
At the end disorder.
The transition from the old to the new time is already accomplished. In principle, everything stands systematized, and it is only in regard to details that success is still to be achieved. In respect to this, however, we must be careful to maintain the right attitude. Everything proceeds as if of its own accord, and this can all too easily tempt us to relax and let thing take their course without troubling over details. Such indifference is the root of all evil. Symptoms of decay are bound to be the result. Here we have the rule indicating the usual course of history. But this rule is not an inescapable law. He who understands it is in position to avoid its effects by dint of unremitting perseverance and caution.
THE IMAGE
Water over fire: the image of the condition
In AFTER COMPLETION.
Thus the superior man
Takes thought of misfortune
And arms himself against it in advance.
When water in a kettle hangs over fire, the two elements stand in relation and thus generate energy (cf. the production of steam). But the resulting tension demands caution. If the water boils over, the fire is extinguished and its energy is lost. If the heat is too great, the water evaporates into the air. These elements here brought in to relation and thus generating energy are by nature hostile to each other. Only the most extreme caution can prevent damage. In life too there are junctures when all forces are in balance and work in harmony, so that everything seems to be in the best of order. In such times only the sage recognizes the moments that bode danger and knows how to banish it by means of timely precautions.
____________________________________
I leave it to the reader to determine the significance.
Postscript: The purpose of this post was to encourage the reader to read Palley's article, not to convince the reader to learn the Book of Changes, which I find to be an amusing and often effective way of stirring up new ideas. The Tarot can be used similarly. If your tastes tend to the more contemporary, you might find Oblique Strategies (Mac Dashboard Widget or Windows ) amusing and useful.
But to the point: Readers of this blog will be familiar with my admiration for Thomas Palley's blog, Economics for Democratic and Open Societies. Palley has recently posted an excellent article on how the trade imbalance between the U.S. and China is distorting the economies of both nations, as well as the economies of the rest of the world. The article will require considerable effort for the economically unschooled, but the efforts will be well-rewarded.
After reading the article, I decided out of idle curiosity to invoke the Yi-Ching with the question "What should the United States be doing with respect to China?" Using a program I wrote a for the Mac several years ago that duplicates the yarrow stick method of selecting a hexagram, I was presented with Hexagram 63 - "Chi Chi / After Completion." Here is a portion of the Wilhelm translation that explains the hexagram:
____________________________________
This hexagram is the evolution of T'ai PEACE ( 11 ). The transition from confusion to order is completed, and everything is in its proper place even in particulars. The strong lines are in the strong places, the weak lines in the weak places. This is a very favorable outlook, yet it gives reason for thought. For it is just when perfect equilibrium has been reached that any movement may cause order to revert to disorder. The one strong line that has moved to the top, thus effecting complete order in details, is followed by the other lines. Each moving according to its nature, and thus suddenly there arises again the hexagram P'i, STANDSTILL ( 12 ).
Hence the present hexagram indicates the conditions of a time of climax, which necessitate the utmost caution.
THE JUDGMENT
AFTER COMPLETION. Success in small matters.
Perseverance furthers.
At the beginning good fortune.
At the end disorder.
The transition from the old to the new time is already accomplished. In principle, everything stands systematized, and it is only in regard to details that success is still to be achieved. In respect to this, however, we must be careful to maintain the right attitude. Everything proceeds as if of its own accord, and this can all too easily tempt us to relax and let thing take their course without troubling over details. Such indifference is the root of all evil. Symptoms of decay are bound to be the result. Here we have the rule indicating the usual course of history. But this rule is not an inescapable law. He who understands it is in position to avoid its effects by dint of unremitting perseverance and caution.
THE IMAGE
Water over fire: the image of the condition
In AFTER COMPLETION.
Thus the superior man
Takes thought of misfortune
And arms himself against it in advance.
When water in a kettle hangs over fire, the two elements stand in relation and thus generate energy (cf. the production of steam). But the resulting tension demands caution. If the water boils over, the fire is extinguished and its energy is lost. If the heat is too great, the water evaporates into the air. These elements here brought in to relation and thus generating energy are by nature hostile to each other. Only the most extreme caution can prevent damage. In life too there are junctures when all forces are in balance and work in harmony, so that everything seems to be in the best of order. In such times only the sage recognizes the moments that bode danger and knows how to banish it by means of timely precautions.
____________________________________
I leave it to the reader to determine the significance.
Postscript: The purpose of this post was to encourage the reader to read Palley's article, not to convince the reader to learn the Book of Changes, which I find to be an amusing and often effective way of stirring up new ideas. The Tarot can be used similarly. If your tastes tend to the more contemporary, you might find Oblique Strategies (Mac Dashboard Widget or Windows ) amusing and useful.
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